Submitted by Karmen Cheung MC ‘13, CASA Political Chair
We’ve all heard about the China-Taiwan conflict. Taiwan wants independence, China wants to hold on to what they think is rightfully theirs, tempers flare and debates suddenly turn into childish screaming and yelling. I’ve heard bits and pieces about the conflict but never really took the chance to learn more. Through a panel of three professors, Peter Perdue, Ann-Ping Chin and Pierre Landry, here is what I took away from the panel:
1. So it turns out that China and Taiwan share the same fundamental principles? I guess that’s not surprising. The two alternate between civil war and a united front depending on if they had a common enemy. As the saying goes, an enemy’s enemy is a friend.
2. Taiwan and China recently entered into an economic cooperation agreement, but has it improved relations? Taiwan has been in a tight spot due to their economic downturn in the last 10 years and working with China is necessary to revive their economy. The protectionist policies of Taiwan in the previous regime have only caused hardships. The Taiwanese economy may be doing better but some fear that economic integration with China will eventually lead to political integration, something the Taiwanese people do not want.
3. What’s the motivation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC?) Through economic gains they want to lure the Taiwanese into embracing the motherland but in fact, economic ties alone will probably not be enough. Additionally, the PRC thinks that cultural exchange will only improve ties but who says the Taiwanese can’t go to China and hate it even more. Lastly, China needs to recognize that Taiwan is a democracy so they can’t ally themselves with only one party and assume they represent the entire population of Taiwan.
4. What will happen? It’s hard to say. Though an outbreak of violence does not seem likely now the situation is fragile and military conflicts often arise due to small and insignificant incidents that escalate. A regime change, a reckless Taibei government, the collapse of China economically, a preemptive strike by the PRC or even just a freak accident can cause a change of events.
5. How will a military conflict affect the U.S.? The U.S. may or may not get involved. Though its stance has generally been to support Taiwan, how many are actually willing to risk their lives for the Taiwanese?
In the end, though we learn a lot from history and can try to prevent violence from recurring, but the turn of events is always unpredictable. No one can really predict what will happen, only possibilities.
